Choices · Consciousness · Economics · Life · Patterns · Uncategorized

The Probability Fallacy

Day to day experience leads us to conclude that the world is made up of causal chains. Within this world the law of probability is the despot?

The Players always play the odds. Their thinking, their strategies, their tactics, their every move reflects their belief in the omnipotence of probability. The Trooper too, in their own way, do not venture outside the path dictated by the group- proof of their faith in the high likelihood of reprisal for any deviation from the norm.

Yet there is another force in play. The Outsiders are more acutely aware of this, but to a much lesser degree so or the rest. We refer to this force as fate, destiny, or karma. It supersedes probability. The hardened realists among us would argue that it intervenes so rarely that it can be dismissed as the exception that makes the rule.

I wonder if the extent to which we believe it is probability or destiny that dictates our course is a reflection of our own level of consciousness. It seems that at the two extremes-the most primitive level, and the highest most sophisticated levels, the nod goes to destiny while the vast middle ground belongs to probability.

In which camp do you find yourselves?


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